Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Inflation, Bankrate.com, 11/18/04

Despite evidence of resurgent inflation, mortgage rates remained steady this week.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged this week at 5.76 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.35 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 5.86 percent.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point to 5.19 percent. The benchmark one-year adjustable-rate mortgage rose 2 basis points to 4.20 percent. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.

What happened to mortgage rates is unusual because a pair of inflation reports hinted that prices are rising faster than expected. Rising inflation usually results in higher interest rates.

The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, rose 1.7 percent in October, about three times faster than economists had expected. Core producer prices -- wholesale prices minus food and energy costs -- was up 0.3 percent, higher than the 0.1 percent rise that had been expected.

Retail prices were up faster than expected, too. The Consumer Price Index for October was 0.6 percent, versus the 0.2 percent that had been expected. Core CPI was 0.2 percent, about double the expectation.

Normally you would expect higher-than-expected inflation to result in higher Treasury yields, and for that to translate quickly into higher long-term mortgage rates. It didn't happen. The report on wholesale prices, says economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors, "does not support the view that inflation is well-contained, although we have to remember that wholesale price increases do not necessarily lead to retail inflation."

Indeed, consumer prices rose more slowly last month than wholesale prices. But they all went up faster than expected. "As for the bond market, a Producer Price Index report like this should give investors pause," Naroff says. "Whether it does or not is a different story. As I have said in the past, markets may be efficient, but rational is another story."

Marc Schwaber, executive vice president of lender MortgageIT, theorizes that the markets are saying, "We have a long correction to go. To convince the American people that the economy is strengthening is going to take some time."

Here's one sign that some people lack confidence in the economy: Bob Moulton, president of Americana Mortgage, says he was talking to clients this week -- a married couple on Long Island who are buying their first home. Small down payment, student loan debt, the works. Moulton asked when they wanted to close their loan, and they said they wanted to wait until March because they didn't want to pay to heat the house in December, January and February.

"So I'm seeing the first-time home buyers are a little sensitive to the expenses related to buying and owning a house," Moulton says.

That's not a bullish attitude. Neither is the bond market's.